For the first time since its inception in 2016, every category in the index showed a month-on-month increase, with food rising +4.4% across the board, compared with a month earlier. Notable category movements month-on-month in January include oil and fats (+7.9%), milk, cheese and eggs (+6.8%), mineral water, soft drinks and juice (+2.9%) and fish (+2.6%).

James Ashurst, client director at CGA, said: “Hospitality was starting to make a robust recovery from the effects of the pandemic and following a tough winter period. These inflation figures pose further challenges to businesses which are already squeezed by rising costs and pressure on supply chains.”

These unusually high levels of inflation were recorded before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is anticipated to prompt further price rises across a number of food categories including wheat, sunflower oil, barley, corn, potatoes and rice. Sanctions on Russia are likely to cause rises in oil and gas prices, driving food and drink inflation even higher.

Shaun Allen, Prestige Purchasing chief executive, commented: “Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine we were predicting high levels of inflation during the first half of 2022. A protracted conflict, coupled with long-term sanctions on Russia’s economy might well raise inflation to levels not seen for a generation. Operators can no longer take supply stability for granted and should take action to optimise their supply.”

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