January 2025’s figure is the Tracker’s lowest since April 2024 and only the second month of negative trading since early 2022. It marks an end to a strong period of trading for managed operators, following like-for-like growth of 3.2% in December.

Sales in early January were restricted by a squeeze on consumers’ spending after Christmas and widespread participation in Dry January. The dip in sales comes as costs continue to rise for business groups—especially in labour, where National Insurance spending is set to increase substantially from April.

Despite Dry January, pubs performed the best of the major hospitality channels in the Tracker, with like-for-like sales down by just 0.1%. Restaurants fell 1.1% as some consumers restricted their meals out after the festive season.

London had a slightly tougher January than the rest of the country, the Tracker shows. Groups’ sales inside the M25 were down by 1.9% year-on-year, while venues beyond the M25 were 1.1% behind.

Karl Chessell, director - hospitality operators and food, EMEA at CGA by NIQ, said: “After a happy Christmas for hospitality groups and their suppliers, trading came back down to earth with a bump in January.

“It shows many consumers remain hesitant about their spending, and while inflation has eased in some areas, business costs remain very high across the sector, and energy price rises and the Government’s planned changes to National Insurance thresholds and rates could hardly be coming at a worse time. Hospitality’s outlook is positive in the long run, but it deserves much better support than it is currently getting.”