All ten categories of the Index recorded month-on-month increases and nine experienced year-on-year inflation amid widespread uplifts in costs. The total basket saw a strong month-on-month increase of 2%.

The rise has been driven by a complex interplay of global and domestic factors, creating a challenging environment for hospitality businesses. The report suggests the impact of significant increases in staffing costs introduced in April is now clearly translating into higher food and beverage pricing.

Notable movers in the Index included the mineral water, soft drinks & juices category, where year-on-year inflation rose to 6.4% thanks to soaring packaging costs, with polymer plastic prices more than doubling since November 2024. Persistent inflation in raw materials like sugar and fruit concentrates have added to the pressures impacting essential beverage lines.

The latest Index also reflects the significant impacts of climate change on the UK's fresh produce supply. While the vegetable category recorded a slight year-on-year reduction of -0.6%, both this and the fruit category saw month-on-month increases of 1% and 0.9% respectively.

These upticks are largely a direct consequence of adverse climatic conditions, including severe heatwaves and prolonged dry spells across Southern Europe, a critical source for around 65% of the UK's fresh fruit and a high proportion of its vegetable imports. Such extreme weather events drastically reduce yields and tighten supply, inevitably driving up prices in the UK market.

Persistent supply chain challenges continue to affect key protein and dairy products, with ongoing issues in beef due to reduced cattle supply, chicken impacted by higher feed costs and welfare initiatives, lamb influenced by smaller breeding flocks, and butter facing tight global milk supplies, all adding further complexity to procurement for the sector.

Shaun Allen, chief executive of Prestige Purchasing, commented: “The June FPI paints a stark picture of renewed inflationary pressures gripping the foodservice sector.

“The broad-based nature of these increases, with all categories showing month-on-month inflation, signals a challenging period ahead. Businesses must be acutely aware of these rising costs and adapt their purchasing strategies to navigate this volatile landscape effectively.”