The latest ONS figures show the headline rate of inflation at 10.1% while Lynx’s own analysis highlight hospitality operators are facing even higher rates in categories such as dairy and fresh produce.

Rachel Dobson, Lynx Purchasing managing director, said: “From the turkey dinner right through to the cheeseboard, the price of many seasonal products is high as the peak trading season approaches.

"Core menu items such as dairy, canned tomatoes and cooking oil, which are part of a wide range of recipes, are seeing continued increases and price volatility. It will take a strict focus on sensible, planned buying to protect margins and profits during one of the most challenging trading periods the sector has known.”

Product areas highlighted in the latest edition include:

• Poultry: The impact of avian flu means that all poultry suppliers face additional challenges to meet demand
• Potatoes: This summer’s drought across Europe raised concerns about the size and quantity of the 2022 potato harvest
• Canned tomatoes: Availability will be a key issue so operators should expect ‘significant’ price increases
• Dairy: Dairy producers have struggled to pass on the increase in costs so many have cut back on production

Dobson added: “This year, it will be more important than ever to plan a range of menu options at different price points. Clearly, not every group of customers will be confident to book a full Christmas dinner with all the trimmings. By also offering choices such as a two-course Christmas special or a buffet menu operators will be able to appeal to a range of customer budgets.

“Keeping suppliers in the picture, and letting them know in good time about reduced order levels, is a better strategy than placing last minute orders for stock that may not be available.”

Lynx Purchasing’s buying tips in the run-up to Christmas 2022 include:

• Buy the most cost-effective pack size, whether a box, case, or tin
• Check orders carefully and report incorrect or damaged goods to the supplier, and make sure your account is credited
• Avoid delivery charges by meeting minimum order amounts
• Be organised, plan ahead and order in good time
• Avoid last-minute ‘lazy’ or disorganised purchasing, so you order from the correct supplier