​​​​​​​Spiralling prices on a range of food and drink staples are adding to the higher costs already facing the sector in areas such as wages and national insurance contributions. The warning comes as Lynx Purchasing publishes the Autumn 2025 edition of its regular Market Forecast.

Rachel Dobson, managing director of Lynx Purchasing, commented: “While the official ONS inflation rate is currently 3.8%, which is a challenge in itself, at 4.2% food inflation is significantly higher. With a higher rate of food price increases forecast to continue well into 2026, operators planning autumn menus, as well as trying to secure advance festive bookings, are walking a tightrope.

“Consumer confidence is fragile, making it hard to increase menu prices, but at the same time, food inflation quickly erodes operators’ margins, unless they can either save on purchasing costs, or pass at least some of the increase onto customers via higher menu prices. The impact of the extreme weather across the summer, from wildfires in Europe to water shortages for UK farmers, will be felt in produce prices for some months to come.”

Areas flagged up in the Autumn 2025 Lynx Purchasing Market Forecast include:

• Beef: UK cattle farmers remain reluctant to expand production due to very high rearing costs. Beef prices are expected to rise further across the autumn, as retailers compete for the available supplies.
• Chicken: While prices have been more stable recently, costs are rising in line with the general food inflation trend, and poultry supplies remain vulnerable to avian flu, as well as higher feed costs.
• Produce: Suppliers are warning that the effects of extreme weather across the summer will impact price and availability for some time. Broccoli and cauliflower are already in short supply.
• Dairy: Butter has seen sharp price increases, and the challenges also affect prices of manufactured products which use dairy, as well as cheese.

In more positive news, The Lynx Purchasing Market Report highlighted cooler waters in Autumn creates good conditions for a wide range of fish and seafood, with species including mackerel, coley, plaice, lemon sole and mussels from UK waters expected to be good value.

The report said potato suppliers are reporting that the UK crop is good in terms of quality and yield, which should keep prices at reasonable levels across the autumn and winter. A free copy of the latest report can be downloaded from the website: www.lynxpurchasing.co.uk.