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27th October 2017

Foodservice price inflation ‘might be starting to ease’

Written by: Katie Imms
The latest Foodservice Price Index from CGA and Prestige Purchasing “suggests a softening of inflationary pressures” as wholesale foodservice prices fell to 6.5% in September – a fall from year-on-year inflation of 9.3% in August.

Despite being the lowest recorded figure since April, it still remains “well above” both past and consumer-side inflation (as measured by the Office for National Statistics), although the Index now “forecasts inflation of 3.8% for the next 12 months.”

 

As impacts of the Brexit vote start to “settle in some food categories,” negotiations continue to affect the industry with inflation levels higher in September in nine of the ten food and drink categories measured, including: oils and fats, mineral waters, soft drinks and juices.

 

That said, as supply and costs start to steady in coming months, inflation levels “should” reduce, the Index reports - as already seen with vegetable and sugar.

 

Graeme Loudon, CGA commercial director said: “The foodservice sector’s year has been characterised by historically high levels of price inflation, triggering substantial challenges for operators throughout the supply chain.

“Our latest Foodservice Price Index reveals some grounds for hope that inflation levels may now start to ease a little, and that would provide the sector with some very welcome stability.

“But with economic factors, supply issues and Brexit all contributing to price volatility, any optimism about a long-term easing of inflation must be tempered with a high degree of caution.”

Head of consulting and insight at Prestige Purchasing, Christopher Clare, added: “The easing in overall inflation means a respite for many businesses where commercial pressures have been rising – not just in input prices but also through the impact of business rates and slowing sales as consumers tighten their purses in the tougher economic conditions.

“Whilst food prices are not yet falling, we are optimistic that we have seen the bulk of any broad increases coming through.”